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BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

3-1  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

2-2  |  Home

7
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
43%
📊
W MICHIGAN
57%
▲ Edge: +27.70% (WMU)
BOISE ST 75% Book Odds: -298
W MICHIGAN 29% Book Odds: +240
Book Implied: 74.90% / 29.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 50.5 46%
Under 50.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 points (Western Michigan)
Boise StBOIS (-8.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+8.5)
Western Michigan Broncos (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

41.5%

W Michigan Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

BOIS By 1-6 points

15.3%

BOIS By 7-13 points

12.9%

WMU By 1-6 points

17.0%

WMU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 29.50
26
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 21
Simulated Score
23
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 29.50
30
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 21
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI W Michigan Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim W Michigan Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim W Michigan (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 BOIS @ WMU 32 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.4% more
Boise State: 1.3 vs Western Michigan: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +24.2% more
Boise State: 464.4 vs Western Michigan: 351.8
First Downs (L5) +23.5% more
Boise State: 24.8 vs Western Michigan: 19.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Boise State: 243.3 vs Western Michigan: 207.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 23.0 32
WMU Score 26.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 24.8 12.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 207.2 / 243.3 113.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.18 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 351.8 / 464.4 223.0 / 377.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -298 / +240 → -298 / +240
97%TICKETS3%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -8.5 / +8.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 50.5 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 12.7 ATS +/-: +4.5
WMU
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.7 ATS +/-: +4.5
WMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +3.8
WMU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -5.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
BOIS
WMU
BOIS
ML
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
ATS
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
TTL
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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