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COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

3-1  |  Home

59
Key Game
Nathan Sutcliffe
KEY GAME

Nathan Sutcliffe

#39 | Punter
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Nathan Sutcliffe None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO ST
27%
📊
UTSA
73%
▲ Edge: +10.20% (CSU)
COLORADO ST 17% Book Odds: +490
UTSA 87% Book Odds: -676
Book Implied: 16.90% / 87.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 46%
Under 56.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.4
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Colorado State)
Colorado StCSU (+14.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (-14.5)
Colorado State Rams (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado St Cover

77.1%

UTSA Cover

22.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CSU +10.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

CSU By 1-6 points

10.4%

CSU By 7-13 points

7.0%

UTSA By 1-6 points

15.1%

UTSA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.8
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 21
33.2
UTSA
Book Implied: 35.50
Simulated Score
16
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 21
38
UTSA
Book Implied: 35.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UTSA Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim UTSA Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colorado St (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.4
C
Sim UTSA (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 CSU @ UTSA 45 - 59
Sep 20, 2025 UTSA @ CSU 17 - 16
Sep 10, 2016 UTSA @ CSU 14 - 23
Sep 26, 2015 CSU @ UTSA 33 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.5% more
UTSA: 141.6 vs Colorado State: 130.5
Turnovers (L5) +51.4% more
Colorado State: 1.1 vs UTSA: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Colorado State: 0.5 vs UTSA: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +14.7% more
Colorado State: 405.2 vs UTSA: 345.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 22.8 45
UTSA Score 33.2 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 18.6 25.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 141.6 / 130.5 239.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 345.8 / 405.2 542.0 / 500.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +425 / -575 → +490 / -676 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11.5 / -11.5 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 56.5 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
UTSA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
UTSA Advantage
4-1-1 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
UTSA
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
CSU
UTSA
CSU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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