Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San Diego St @ Toledo SDSU @ TOL

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

1-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

3-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
Player
Tashi Dorje None-None
Markus Meincke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
50%
📊
TOLEDO
50%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (SDSU)
SAN DIEGO ST 46% Book Odds: +120
TOLEDO 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 68%
Under 50.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Diego State)
San Diego StSDSU (+2.5) 0 ToledoTOL (-2.5)
San Diego State Aztecs (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

52.8%

Toledo Cover

47.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SDSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

SDSU By 7-13 points

16.1%

TOL By 1-6 points

16.1%

TOL By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 24
28.5
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
26
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 24
32
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San Diego St Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Toledo Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Sim Toledo (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 SDSU @ TOL 16 - 41
Sep 24, 2022 TOL @ SDSU 14 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.2% more
San Diego State: 1.9 vs Toledo: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.3% more
San Diego State: 201.8 vs Toledo: 154.9
Total Yards (L5) +31.0% more
Toledo: 457.6 vs San Diego State: 349.4
First Downs (L5) +17.0% more
Toledo: 22.4 vs San Diego State: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 29.5 16
TOL Score 28.5 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 19.2 19.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 154.9 / 201.8 210.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 457.6 / 349.4 494.0 / 296.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -118 / -102 → +120 / -142 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 50.5 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.2 ATS +/-: -12.3
TOL Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -12.2 ATS +/-: -12.3
TOL Advantage
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.0
TOL
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +10.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
SDSU
TOL
SDSU
ML
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
ATS
40% 2-3-1
67% 4-2
40% 2-3-1
67% 4-2
TTL
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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