Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCLA @ Maryland UCLA @ MD

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

4-0  |  Road

54
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 1:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

2-2  |  Home

3
Key Game
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
@
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
Player
Curtis Gerrand None-None
Bryce McFerson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
45%
📊
MARYLAND
55%
▲ Edge: +9.10% (MD)
UCLA 59% Book Odds: -142
MARYLAND 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.4
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 (Over)
Over 55.5 72%
Under 55.5 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Maryland)
UCLAUCLA (-2.5) 0 MarylandMD (+2.5)
Maryland Terrapins (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

44.3%

Maryland Cover

55.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)

UCLA By 1-6 points

15.7%

UCLA By 7-13 points

13.8%

MD By 1-6 points

16.9%

MD By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32.2
UCLA
Book Implied: 29
34.2
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
18
UCLA
Book Implied: 29
34
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maryland Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Maryland Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maryland (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
B
Sim Maryland (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.4
A
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 UCLA @ MD 54 - 3
Oct 18, 2025 MD @ UCLA 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.9% more
UCLA: 242.8 vs Maryland: 131.4
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
UCLA: 0.7 vs Maryland: 0.4
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
UCLA: 0.5 vs Maryland: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 32.2 54
MD Score 34.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 23.5 13.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 131.4 / 242.8 39.0 / 266.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.07 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 461.4 / 447.7 181.0 / 475.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.7 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -118 / -102 → -142 / +120 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 55.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +12.3
MD
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +12.3
MD
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.6
MD
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
UCLA
MD
UCLA
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
29% 2-5-1
43% 3-4-1
29% 2-5-1
14% 1-6-1
TTL
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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