Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia Tech @ Boston College VT @ BC

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

4-0  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

2-2  |  Home

14
Key Game
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
@
Luca Lombardo
KEY GAME

Luca Lombardo

#99 | Place kicker
Player
John Love None-None
Luca Lombardo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA TECH
68%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
32%
▲ Edge: +15.10% (BC)
VIRGINIA TECH 87% Book Odds: -676
BOSTON COLLEGE 17% Book Odds: +490
Book Implied: 87.10% / 16.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 60%
Under 46.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Boston College)
Virginia TechVT (-14.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (+14.5)
Boston College Eagles (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Tech Cover

28.4%

Boston College Cover

71.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BC +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

VT By 1-6 points

16.1%

VT By 7-13 points

19.5%

BC By 1-6 points

12.2%

BC By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 30.50
21.5
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 16
Simulated Score
29
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 30.50
28
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 16
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Virginia Tech Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Virginia Tech Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Boston College (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Sim Boston College (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 VT @ BC 21 - 14
Oct 17, 2024 BC @ VT 21 - 42
Nov 11, 2023 VT @ BC 48 - 22
Sep 10, 2022 BC @ VT 10 - 27
Nov 5, 2021 VT @ BC 3 - 17
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +13.4% more
Virginia Tech: 23.0 vs Boston College: 20.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Virginia Tech: 0.5 vs Boston College: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.0% more
Virginia Tech: 424.1 vs Boston College: 390.0
Turnovers (L5) +74.8% more
Boston College: 2.0 vs Virginia Tech: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 29.5 21
BC Score 21.5 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 23.0 13.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 156.8 / 156.6 150.0 / 223.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.15 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 390.0 / 424.1 261.0 / 370.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -676 / +490 → -676 / +490
97%TICKETS3%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14 / +14 → -14.5 / +14.5 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 46.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.7
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
VT
BC
VT
ML
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
33% 2-4
TTL
20% 1-4
17% 1-5
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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