Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Delaware @ Virginia DEL @ UVA

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

2-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 6:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

3-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Josh Cupitt
KEY GAME

Josh Cupitt

#39 | Punter
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Josh Cupitt None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE
8%
📊
VIRGINIA
92%
DELAWARE 11% Book Odds: +850
VIRGINIA 94% Book Odds: -1450
Book Implied: 10.50% / 93.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 52.5 56%
Under 52.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
-19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Virginia)
DelawareDEL (+19.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (-19.5)
Virginia Cavaliers (-19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware Cover

3.2%

Virginia Cover

96.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

DEL By 1-6 points

1.9%

DEL By 7-13 points

0.8%

UVA By 1-6 points

4.8%

UVA By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 16.50
40.2
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 36
Simulated Score
29
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 16.50
30
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 36
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Virginia Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim Virginia Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia (-19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
B
Sim Delaware (+19.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.4
C
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 DEL @ UVA 3 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +54.4% more
Virginia: 170.2 vs Delaware: 110.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Delaware: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +16.0% more
Delaware: 0.9 vs Virginia: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 14.2 3
UVA Score 40.2 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 21.2 34.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 170.2 / 110.2 119.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 381.5 / 404.9 556.0 / 160.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +850 / -1449 → +850 / -1450
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +19.5 / -19.5 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 52.5 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
UVA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
UVA
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.8
UVA
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
DEL
UVA
DEL
ML
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
43% 3-4-1
38% 3-5
43% 3-4-1
50% 4-4
TTL
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
12% 1-7
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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