Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Arkansas @ Florida St CARK @ FSU

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

C ARKANSASCARK

2-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

2-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Wyatt Salter

#37 | Punter
@
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
Player
Wyatt Salter None-None
Daniel Hughes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C ARKANSAS
4%
📊
FLORIDA ST
96%
C ARKANSAS --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 62.5 45%
Under 62.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+34.6
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
+45.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Central Arkansas)
C ArkansasCARK (+45.5) 0 Florida StFSU (-45.5)
Central Arkansas Bears (+45.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Arkansas Cover

99.3%

Florida St Cover

0.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CARK +34.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

CARK By 1-6 points

0.4%

CARK By 7-13 points

0.1%

FSU By 1-6 points

1.5%

FSU By 7-13 points

4.4%

AI Model Projected Score
13.2
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 8.50
47.8
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 54
Simulated Score
21
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 8.50
36
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 54
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Florida St Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI C Arkansas (+45.5) Win
Proj Spread: +34.6
A
Sim C Arkansas (+45.5) Win
Proj Spread: +15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 CARK @ FSU 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.8% more
Florida State: 2.1 vs Central Arkansas: 1.6
Total Yards (L5) +27.5% more
Florida State: 410.6 vs Central Arkansas: 322.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Florida State: 0.4 vs Central Arkansas: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +13.4% more
Florida State: 19.4 vs Central Arkansas: 17.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 13.2 7
FSU Score 47.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 17.1 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 154.0 / 147.3 179.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 410.6 / 322.0 417.0 / 248.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -172 / +130 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +42.5 / -42.5 → +45.5 / -45.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 62.5 ↑
40%TICKETS60%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
--
FSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
--
FSU Advantage
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
--
FSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
CARK
FSU
CARK
ML
83% 5-1
50% 1-1
83% 5-1
50% 1-1
ATS
67% 4-2
50% 1-1
100% 6-0
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 4-2
50% 1-1
83% 5-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bears May Be Without Two Key Starters Against Falcons in Week 6
si 11 hours, 44 minutes ago
Isaac Brown's Record Night Propels Louisville Past Florida State…
abcnews 4 days, 23 hours ago
Mike Norvell's Baffling Fourth-Down Call Ignites Florida State's…
yahoo 4 days, 23 hours ago
Mike Norvell's FSU Buyout Details Emerge as Hot Seat Intensifies…
bleacherreport 4 days, 23 hours ago
Mike Ditka, NFL Icon and Hall of Famer, Passes Away at 86
rutlandherald 5 days, 5 hours ago