Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma St @ West Virginia OKST @ WVU

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

3-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

3-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
@
Bryan Hansen
KEY GAME

Bryan Hansen

#83 | Punter
Player
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
Bryan Hansen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA ST
21%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
79%
▲ Edge: +23.50% (WVU)
OKLAHOMA ST 49% Book Odds: +105
WEST VIRGINIA 56% Book Odds: -125
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.6
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +10.9 (Under)
Over 60.5 27%
Under 60.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (West Virginia)
Oklahoma StOKST (+1.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (-1.5)
West Virginia Mountaineers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma St Cover

15.9%

West Virginia Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WVU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

OKST By 1-6 points

7.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

4.7%

WVU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WVU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17.8
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 29.50
31.8
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
16
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 29.50
28
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI West Virginia Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Sim West Virginia Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI West Virginia (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Sim West Virginia (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.6
A
Sim u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 OKST @ WVU 41 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 WVU @ OKST 38 - 14
Oct 21, 2023 OKST @ WVU 48 - 34
Nov 26, 2022 WVU @ OKST 24 - 19
Nov 6, 2021 OKST @ WVU 24 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.7% more
West Virginia: 224.4 vs Oklahoma State: 197.3
Turnovers (L5) +57.9% more
Oklahoma State: 2.0 vs West Virginia: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +21.0% more
Oklahoma State: 24.8 vs West Virginia: 19.6
Total Yards (L5) +12.9% more
Oklahoma State: 477.1 vs West Virginia: 415.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 17.8 41
WVU Score 31.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 24.8 29.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 224.4 / 197.3 335.0 / 220.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 415.4 / 477.1 467.0 / 609.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → +105 / -125 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 60.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
WVU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
WVU
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +0.3
WVU
6-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
OKST
WVU
OKST
ML
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-5-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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