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TCU

TCUTCU

2-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Acrisure Bounce House
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

3-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
John Hoyet Chance
KEY GAME

John Hoyet Chance

#48 | Punter
@
Atticus Bertrams
KEY GAME

Atticus Bertrams

#49 | Punter
Player
John Hoyet Chance None-None
Atticus Bertrams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
57%
📊
UCF
43%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (UCF)
TCU 63% Book Odds: -170
UCF 41% Book Odds: +142
Book Implied: 63% / 41.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 48.5 48%
Under 48.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
UCF
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (UCF)
TCUTCU (-3.5) 0 UCFUCF (+3.5)
UCF Knights (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

41.5%

UCF Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UCF +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

TCU By 1-6 points

17.0%

TCU By 7-13 points

17.5%

UCF By 1-6 points

15.3%

UCF By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
TCU
Book Implied: 26
22.2
UCF
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
32
TCU
Book Implied: 26
34
UCF
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI TCU Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim UCF Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UCF (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim UCF (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.4
D
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 TCU @ UCF 13 - 21
Sep 14, 2024 UCF @ TCU 35 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +36.0% more
TCU: 25.2 vs UCF: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +31.3% more
TCU: 516.9 vs UCF: 354.9
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
TCU: 1.2 vs UCF: 1.1
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
TCU: 0.5 vs UCF: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 25.2 13
UCF Score 22.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 25.2 17.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 188.0 / 186.0 106.0 / 33.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 354.9 / 516.9 266.0 / 343.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.2 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -170 / +142 ↓
90%TICKETS10%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 48.5 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
UCF Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
UCF Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
UCF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
TCU
UCF
TCU
ML
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
60% 3-2
ATS
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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