Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas St @ Cincinnati KSU @ CIN

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

3-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

4-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Simon McClannan None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
54%
📊
CINCINNATI
46%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (CIN)
KANSAS ST 70% Book Odds: -238
CINCINNATI 34% Book Odds: +195
Book Implied: 70.40% / 33.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.0 (Under)
Over 55.5 37%
Under 55.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Cincinnati)
Kansas StKSU (-6) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+6)
Cincinnati Bearcats (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

45.7%

Cincinnati Cover

54.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

KSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

KSU By 7-13 points

16.5%

CIN By 1-6 points

15.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
25.5
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 30.80
24
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
28
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 30.80
30
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kansas St Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Cincinnati Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cincinnati (+6) Win
Proj Spread: +1.5
B
Sim Cincinnati (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.5
B
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 KSU @ CIN 26 - 31
Nov 23, 2024 CIN @ KSU 15 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Kansas State: 247.7 vs Cincinnati: 224.1
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Kansas State: 0.9 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Kansas State: 0.6 vs Cincinnati: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 25.5 26
CIN Score 24.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 22.1 16.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 224.1 / 247.7 271.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.59
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 466.3 / 447.4 436.0 / 447.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -225 / +185 → -238 / +195 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6 / +6 → -6 / +6
43%TICKETS57%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 55.5 ↑
42%TICKETS58%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
KSU
CIN
KSU
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Week 7 College Football: Six Top-25 Clashes Set to Ignite the Th…
yahoo 17 hours, 58 minutes ago
Tennessee Picks George MacIntyre to Start vs. Alabama as Faizon …
newsweek 18 hours, 2 minutes ago
Bears May Be Without Two Key Starters Against Falcons in Week 6
si 1 day, 17 hours ago
West Virginia's Defense Sinks to Historic Lows, Leaving Fans and…
theintermountain 2 days, 6 hours ago
Curt Cignetti's No-Nonsense Rule: No Dancing, No Spiking for Ind…
yahoo 2 days, 6 hours ago