Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado @ Baylor COLO @ BAY

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

2-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

3-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Elliott Arnold
KEY GAME

Elliott Arnold

#46 | Place kicker
@
Rhett Armstrong
KEY GAME

Rhett Armstrong

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Elliott Arnold None-None
Rhett Armstrong None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO
34%
📊
BAYLOR
66%
▲ Edge: +8.90% (COLO)
COLORADO 25% Book Odds: +300
BAYLOR 79% Book Odds: -380
Book Implied: 25% / 79.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +11.1 (Under)
Over 54.5 27%
Under 54.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Colorado)
ColoradoCOLO (+8.5) 0 BaylorBAY (-8.5)
Colorado Buffaloes (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado Cover

69.1%

Baylor Cover

30.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around COLO +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

COLO By 1-6 points

12.9%

COLO By 7-13 points

9.6%

BAY By 1-6 points

16.5%

BAY By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 23
25.2
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 31.50
Simulated Score
19
COLORADO
Book Implied: 23
38
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 31.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Baylor Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Baylor Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colorado (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim Baylor (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.4
A
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 COLO @ BAY 13 - 23
Sep 21, 2024 BAY @ COLO 31 - 38
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +32.6% more
Baylor: 25.5 vs Colorado: 19.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Baylor: 451.2 vs Colorado: 382.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 18.2 13
BAY Score 25.2 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.5 / 19.3 22.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 163.0 / 163.0 116.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 451.2 / 382.7 337.0 / 363.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 2.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +235 / -290 → +300 / -380 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +8.5 / -8.5
43%TICKETS57%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 54.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.7
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
COLO
BAY
COLO
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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