Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ Auburn VAN @ AUB

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

3-1  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 4:15 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

3-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jalen Gilbert
KEY GAME

Jalen Gilbert

#9 | Safety
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Jalen Gilbert None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
67%
📊
AUBURN
33%
▲ Edge: +42.70% (VAN)
VANDERBILT 24% Book Odds: +310
AUBURN 80% Book Odds: -395
Book Implied: 24.40% / 79.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +11.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 27%
Under 54.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.4 points (Vanderbilt)
VanderbiltVAN (+10) 0 AuburnAUB (-10)
Vanderbilt Commodores (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

70.1%

Auburn Cover

29.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VAN -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1-6 points

16.3%

VAN By 7-13 points

19.4%

AUB By 1-6 points

12.6%

AUB By 7-13 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 22.20
17.8
AUBURN
Book Implied: 32.20
Simulated Score
34
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 22.20
27
AUBURN
Book Implied: 32.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Vanderbilt Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
A
Sim Vanderbilt (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 VAN @ AUB 15 - 21
Nov 8, 2025 AUB @ VAN 38 - 45
Nov 2, 2024 VAN @ AUB 17 - 7
Nov 4, 2023 AUB @ VAN 31 - 15
Nov 5, 2016 VAN @ AUB 16 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Vanderbilt: 1.5 vs Auburn: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.3% more
Auburn: 185.2 vs Vanderbilt: 149.0
First Downs (L5) +16.1% more
Auburn: 24.3 vs Vanderbilt: 20.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Auburn: 0.5 vs Vanderbilt: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 25.2 15
AUB Score 17.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 20.9 15.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 185.2 / 149.0 139.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 445.6 / 419.9 279.0 / 311.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +270 / -340 → +310 / -395 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +10 / -10 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 54.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
AUB Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
AUB
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +0.3
AUB
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
VAN
AUB
VAN
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
TTL
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
25% 2-6
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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