VANDERBILT
VANDERBILTVAN
3-1 | Road
15
AUBURN
AUBURNAUB
3-1 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jalen Gilbert
#9 | Safety@
KEY GAME
Hudson Kaak
#14 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jalen Gilbert | None-None |
| Hudson Kaak | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
67%
AUBURN
33%
▲ Edge: +42.70% (VAN)
VANDERBILT
24%
Book Odds: +310
AUBURN
80%
Book Odds: -395
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +11.5 (Under)
Over 54.5
27%
Under 54.5
73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.4 points (Vanderbilt)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VAN -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
VAN By 1-6 points
16.3%
VAN By 7-13 points
19.4%
AUB By 1-6 points
12.6%
AUB By 7-13 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Vanderbilt
25.2
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 22.20
Auburn
17.8
AUBURN
Book Implied: 32.20
Simulated Score
Vanderbilt
34
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 22.20
Auburn
27
AUBURN
Book Implied: 32.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Vanderbilt
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Vanderbilt
Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Vanderbilt (+10)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
A
Sim
Vanderbilt (+10)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
u54.5
Win
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Sim
o54.5
Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 26, 2026
VAN @ AUB
15 - 21
Nov 8, 2025
AUB @ VAN
38 - 45
Nov 2, 2024
VAN @ AUB
17 - 7
Nov 4, 2023
AUB @ VAN
31 - 15
Nov 5, 2016
VAN @ AUB
16 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.2% more
Vanderbilt: 1.5
vs
Auburn: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5)
+24.3% more
Auburn: 185.2
vs
Vanderbilt: 149.0
First Downs (L5)
+16.1% more
Auburn: 24.3
vs
Vanderbilt: 20.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+8.0% more
Auburn: 0.5
vs
Vanderbilt: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAN Score
25.2
15
AUB Score
17.8
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.3 / 20.9
15.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards
185.2 / 149.0
139.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.47 / 0.24
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards
445.6 / 419.9
279.0 / 311.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +270 / -340
→
+310 / -395
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5
→
+10 / -10
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5
→
54.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -6.8
AUB
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
Advantage
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -6.8
AUB
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
VAN
AUB
VAN
ML
60%
3-2
83%
5-1
60%
3-2
67%
4-2
ATS
40%
2-3
67%
4-2
60%
3-2
83%
5-1
TTL
40%
2-3
83%
5-1
0%
0-5
83%
5-1
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