Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Mississippi St MIZ @ MSST

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

3-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:45 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Brunno Reus None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
59%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
41%
▲ Edge: +17.80% (MIZ)
MISSOURI 41% Book Odds: +145
MISSISSIPPI ST 64% Book Odds: -175
Book Implied: 40.80% / 63.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 58.5 56%
Under 58.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
MISSOURI
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Missouri)
MissouriMIZ (+3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (-3.5)
Missouri Tigers (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

59.6%

Mississippi St Cover

40.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIZ -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

MIZ By 1-6 points

17.0%

MIZ By 7-13 points

17.7%

MSST By 1-6 points

15.1%

MSST By 7-13 points

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
32.2
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 27.50
28.8
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
29
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 27.50
35
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Missouri Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Missouri (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.4
A
Sim Mississippi St (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MIZ @ MSST 24 - 31
Nov 15, 2025 MSST @ MIZ 27 - 49
Nov 23, 2024 MIZ @ MSST 39 - 20
Dec 19, 2020 MIZ @ MSST 32 - 51
Nov 5, 2015 MSST @ MIZ 31 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +33.8% more
Mississippi State: 481.6 vs Missouri: 359.9
First Downs (L5) +28.4% more
Mississippi State: 25.0 vs Missouri: 19.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Mississippi State: 209.7 vs Missouri: 176.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Mississippi State: 0.5 vs Missouri: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 32.2 24
MSST Score 28.8 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.0 / 19.5 27.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 209.7 / 176.7 139.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 481.6 / 359.9 499.0 / 414.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115 → +145 / -175 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 58.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
MIZ
MSST
MIZ
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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