Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ Louisville WAKE @ LOU

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

3-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

2-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Ethan Hyams
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Niall Hayes

#91 | Punter
Player
Ethan Hyams None-None
Niall Hayes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
38%
📊
LOUISVILLE
62%
▲ Edge: +16.80% (WAKE)
WAKE FOREST 21% Book Odds: +380
LOUISVILLE 83% Book Odds: -500
Book Implied: 20.80% / 83.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.5
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 57.5 55%
Under 57.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Wake Forest)
Wake ForestWAKE (+11.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (-11.5)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+11.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

65.3%

Louisville Cover

34.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WAKE +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)

WAKE By 1-6 points

13.8%

WAKE By 7-13 points

10.8%

LOU By 1-6 points

16.8%

LOU By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 23
32.5
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
28
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 23
33
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisville Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wake Forest (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
B
Sim Wake Forest (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.5
C
Sim o57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 WAKE @ LOU 30 - 27
Oct 29, 2022 WAKE @ LOU 21 - 48
Oct 2, 2021 LOU @ WAKE 34 - 37
Dec 12, 2020 WAKE @ LOU 21 - 45
Oct 12, 2019 LOU @ WAKE 62 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +73.1% more
Louisville: 226.1 vs Wake Forest: 130.6
Total Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Louisville: 463.8 vs Wake Forest: 418.6
Turnovers (L5) +65.0% more
Wake Forest: 0.9 vs Louisville: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 27.0 30
LOU Score 32.5 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 21.4 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 226.1 / 130.6 75.0 / 177.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 463.8 / 418.6 399.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +470 / -649 → +380 / -500 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +13.5 / -13.5 → +11.5 / -11.5 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 57.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +12.5
LOU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +12.5
LOU
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.0
LOU
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
WAKE
LOU
WAKE
ML
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
ATS
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
TTL
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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