Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Houston @ GA Southern HOU @ GASO

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

3-1  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 4:00 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

1-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
@
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Liam Dougherty None-None
Tripp Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
89%
📊
GA SOUTHERN
11%
HOUSTON 91% Book Odds: -950
GA SOUTHERN 14% Book Odds: +625
Book Implied: 90.50% / 13.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 36%
Under 56.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Houston)
HoustonHOU (-17.5) 0 GA SouthernGASO (+17.5)
Houston Cougars (-17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Houston Cover

94.5%

GA Southern Cover

5.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -22.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

6.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

13.4%

GASO By 1-6 points

3.1%

GASO By 7-13 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
36.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 37
13.8
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
30
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 37
34
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim GA Southern Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.4
B
Sim GA Southern (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ GASO 42 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.2% more
Houston: 237.5 vs Georgia Southern: 132.5
First Downs (L5) +26.4% more
Houston: 28.0 vs Georgia Southern: 20.6
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Houston: 486.2 vs Georgia Southern: 376.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Georgia Southern: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 36.2 42
GASO Score 13.8 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 28.0 22.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 132.5 / 237.5 66.0 / 202.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.89
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 376.9 / 486.2 355.0 / 441.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -1050 / +626 → -950 / +625
99%TICKETS1%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -18 / +18 → -17.5 / +17.5 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55 → 56.5 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 20.8 ATS +/-: +5.8
GASO
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 20.8 ATS +/-: +5.8
GASO Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
GASO
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
HOU
GASO
HOU
ML
83% 5-1
100% 6-0
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
ATS
17% 1-5
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
TTL
17% 1-5
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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