Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah @ Iowa State UTAH @ ISU

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

4-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

2-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
@
Ethan Gurney
KEY GAME

Ethan Gurney

#95 | Punter
Player
Orion Phillips None-None
Ethan Gurney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH
60%
📊
IOWA STATE
40%
▲ Edge: +12.20% (ISU)
UTAH 77% Book Odds: -325
IOWA STATE 28% Book Odds: +260
Book Implied: 76.50% / 27.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 73%
Under 46.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.4
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Iowa State)
UtahUTAH (-7.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (+7.5)
Iowa State Cyclones (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah Cover

37.7%

Iowa State Cover

62.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ISU +4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

UTAH By 1-6 points

16.9%

UTAH By 7-13 points

18.3%

ISU By 1-6 points

14.5%

ISU By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
UTAH
Book Implied: 27
26.8
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
34
UTAH
Book Implied: 27
29
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.4
B
Sim Iowa State (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 UTAH @ ISU 31 - 17
Nov 23, 2024 ISU @ UTAH 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +26.9% more
Utah: 25.3 vs Iowa State: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +23.3% more
Utah: 499.7 vs Iowa State: 383.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Utah: 0.6 vs Iowa State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 31.2 31
ISU Score 26.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 25.3 23.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 227.9 / 231.1 111.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.21 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 383.2 / 499.7 316.0 / 411.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -354 / +273 → -325 / +260 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9 / +9 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 46.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.8 ATS +/-: +9.8
ISU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.8 ATS +/-: +9.8
ISU
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
ISU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
UTAH
ISU
UTAH
ML
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
83% 5-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3-1
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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