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MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

1-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 9:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

3-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
7%
📊
SMU
93%
▲ Edge: +3% (MOST)
MISSOURI ST 4% Book Odds: +2500
SMU 99% Book Odds: -9000
Book Implied: 3.80% / 98.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.5
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 60.5 55%
Under 60.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.5
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
+30.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Missouri State)
Missouri StMOST (+30.5) 0 SMUSMU (-30.5)
Missouri State Bears (+30.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

97.5%

SMU Cover

2.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST +27.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MOST By 1-6 points

1.5%

MOST By 7-13 points

0.6%

SMU By 1-6 points

4.0%

SMU By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 15
45
SMU
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
19
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 15
40
SMU
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI SMU Win
93% Win Prob
A
Sim SMU Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (+30.5) Win
Proj Spread: +27.5
C
Sim Missouri St (+30.5) Win
Proj Spread: +21.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.5
C
Sim u60.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MOST @ SMU 24 - 34
Sep 13, 2025 SMU @ MOST 28 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +72.5% more
SMU: 2.1 vs Missouri State: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +17.8% more
SMU: 509.3 vs Missouri State: 432.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.4% more
SMU: 179.4 vs Missouri State: 156.9
First Downs (L5) +10.4% more
SMU: 23.5 vs Missouri State: 21.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 17.5 24
SMU Score 45.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 21.3 28.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 179.4 / 156.9 128.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 509.3 / 432.3 592.0 / 239.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3000 / -10000 → +2500 / -9000
4%TICKETS96%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35 / -35 → +30.5 / -30.5 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58 → 60.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SMU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SMU
2-4-2 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: +0.9
SMU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
MOST
SMU
MOST
ML
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
ATS
43% 3-4-1
62% 5-3
71% 5-2-1
62% 5-3
TTL
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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