Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wisconsin @ Penn State WIS @ PSU

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

3-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 5:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Gavin Lahm
KEY GAME

Gavin Lahm

#97 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Gavin Lahm None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
21%
📊
PENN STATE
79%
WISCONSIN 25% Book Odds: +300
PENN STATE 79% Book Odds: -380
Book Implied: 25% / 79.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.6
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +14.1 (Over)
Over 43.5 78%
Under 43.5 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Penn State)
WisconsinWIS (+10) 0 Penn StatePSU (-10)
Penn State Nittany Lions (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wisconsin Cover

15.9%

Penn State Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

WIS By 1-6 points

7.9%

WIS By 7-13 points

4.7%

PSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

PSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 16.80
35.8
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
12
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 16.80
42
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penn State Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Penn State Loss
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penn State (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Sim Penn State (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.6
A
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 WIS @ PSU 24 - 20
Oct 26, 2024 PSU @ WIS 28 - 13
Sep 4, 2021 PSU @ WIS 16 - 10
Nov 10, 2018 WIS @ PSU 10 - 22
Dec 3, 2016 WIS @ PSU 31 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.0% more
Penn State: 215.9 vs Wisconsin: 136.7
First Downs (L5) +35.5% more
Penn State: 23.1 vs Wisconsin: 17.0
Total Yards (L5) +30.3% more
Penn State: 474.5 vs Wisconsin: 364.1
Turnovers (L5) +91.7% more
Wisconsin: 1.1 vs Penn State: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 21.8 24
PSU Score 35.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 17.0 12.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 215.9 / 136.7 119.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 474.5 / 364.1 233.0 / 355.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +380 / -500 → +300 / -380 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 43.5
86%TICKETS14%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
PSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
PSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
PSU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
WIS
PSU
WIS
ML
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
17% 1-5
40% 2-3
TTL
83% 5-1
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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