Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ Washington MINN @ WASH

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

3-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 11:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

3-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Luke Drzewiecki
KEY GAME

Luke Drzewiecki

#-- | Place kicker
@
Tyler Robles
KEY GAME

Tyler Robles

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Drzewiecki None-None
Tyler Robles None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
28%
📊
WASHINGTON
72%
▲ Edge: +5.60% (MINN)
MINNESOTA 22% Book Odds: +350
WASHINGTON 82% Book Odds: -455
Book Implied: 22.20% / 82%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.4
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 (Over)
Over 45.5 64%
Under 45.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Minnesota)
MinnesotaMINN (+11.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (-11.5)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (+11.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

76.2%

Washington Cover

23.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

MINN By 1-6 points

10.7%

MINN By 7-13 points

7.3%

WASH By 1-6 points

15.3%

WASH By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 17
31.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
22
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 17
34
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Washington Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Minnesota (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim Washington (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.4
B
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MINN @ WASH 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +24.3% more
Washington: 428.6 vs Minnesota: 344.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Washington: 138.5 vs Minnesota: 116.9
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Washington: 0.8 vs Minnesota: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +9.9% more
Washington: 20.5 vs Minnesota: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 21.2 27
WASH Score 31.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 18.6 16.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 138.5 / 116.9 40.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 428.6 / 344.8 279.0 / 329.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +271 / -351 → +350 / -455 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9 / -9 → +11.5 / -11.5 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45 → 45.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
WASH
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: -13.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
WASH
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: -13.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
WASH
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
MINN
WASH
MINN
ML
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
ATS
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
TTL
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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