Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa @ Michigan IOWA @ MICH

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

4-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

3-1  |  Home

19
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Boston Everitt

#49 | Punter
@
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
Player
Boston Everitt None-None
Cam Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA
45%
📊
MICHIGAN
55%
▲ Edge: +9.10% (IOWA)
IOWA 36% Book Odds: +180
MICHIGAN 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 35.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
39.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 (Over)
Over 39.5 71%
Under 39.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
IOWA
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Iowa)
IowaIOWA (+5.5) 0 MichiganMICH (-5.5)
Iowa Hawkeyes (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa Cover

55.7%

Michigan Cover

44.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

IOWA By 1-6 points

15.7%

IOWA By 7-13 points

13.8%

MICH By 1-6 points

16.9%

MICH By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
IOWA
Book Implied: 17
26
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
30
IOWA
Book Implied: 17
29
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Michigan Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Iowa Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
B
Sim Iowa (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o39.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Sim o39.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 IOWA @ MICH 20 - 19
Dec 2, 2023 MICH @ IOWA 26 - 0
Oct 1, 2022 MICH @ IOWA 27 - 14
Dec 4, 2021 MICH @ IOWA 42 - 3
Oct 5, 2019 IOWA @ MICH 3 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +120.0% more
Michigan: 1.7 vs Iowa: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Michigan: 0.5 vs Iowa: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.9% more
Iowa: 261.3 vs Michigan: 162.3
Total Yards (L5) +25.0% more
Iowa: 455.3 vs Michigan: 341.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 24.0 20
MICH Score 26.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 22.8 21.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 162.3 / 261.3 153.0 / 58.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 341.4 / 455.3 429.0 / 285.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -192 → +180 / -218 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 37.5 → 39.5 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 16.5 ATS +/-: +6.4
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 16.5 ATS +/-: +6.4
MICH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +1.7
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
IOWA
MICH
IOWA
ML
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
ATS
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
33% 2-4
TTL
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
17% 1-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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