Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Carolina @ Alabama SC @ ALA

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

2-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

4-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Malik Orsan
KEY GAME

Malik Orsan

#32 | Place kicker
@
Alex Asparuhov
KEY GAME

Alex Asparuhov

#32 | Punter
Player
Malik Orsan None-None
Alex Asparuhov None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH CAROLINA
16%
📊
ALABAMA
84%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (ALA)
SOUTH CAROLINA 21% Book Odds: +380
ALABAMA 83% Book Odds: -500
Book Implied: 20.80% / 83.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.5
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 (Over)
Over 53.5 72%
Under 53.5 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.5
ALABAMA
Book Spread
-12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Alabama)
South CarolinaSC (+12.5) 0 AlabamaALA (-12.5)
Alabama Crimson Tide (-12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Carolina Cover

10.6%

Alabama Cover

89.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -17.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

SC By 1-6 points

5.6%

SC By 7-13 points

3.0%

ALA By 1-6 points

10.4%

ALA By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 20.50
41
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
28
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 20.50
29
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alabama Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Alabama Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.5
B
Sim South Carolina (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 64.5
A
Sim o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 SC @ ALA 18 - 49
Oct 25, 2025 ALA @ SC 29 - 22
Oct 12, 2024 SC @ ALA 25 - 27
Sep 14, 2019 ALA @ SC 47 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.2% more
South Carolina: 1.7 vs Alabama: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
South Carolina: 215.6 vs Alabama: 179.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SC Score 23.5 18
ALA Score 41.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 22.5 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 179.3 / 215.6 124.0 / 216.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 434.7 / 472.3 489.0 / 419.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +380 / -500 → +380 / -500
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11.5 / -11.5 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 53.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SC
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +3.9
ALA Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SC
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +3.9
ALA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SC
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.3
ALA
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
SC
ALA
SC
ML
88% 7-1
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
ATS
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
TTL
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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