Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Texas Tech SHSU @ TTU

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

1-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Galaxy Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

4-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
@
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
Player
Cal Joseph None-None
Will Karoll None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
3%
📊
TEXAS TECH
97%
SAM HOUSTON --
TEXAS TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 55%
Under 56.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
-34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Texas Tech)
Sam HoustonSHSU (+34.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (-34.5)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-34.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

0.6%

Texas Tech Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TTU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

SHSU By 1-6 points

0.4%

SHSU By 7-13 points

0.1%

TTU By 1-6 points

1.4%

TTU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
11.5
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 11
46.5
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
17
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 11
38
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Tech Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas Tech Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech (-34.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Sam Houston (+34.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +21.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 SHSU @ TTU 14 - 49
Sep 5, 2015 SHSU @ TTU 45 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.0% more
Texas Tech: 1.6 vs Sam Houston: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.7% more
Texas Tech: 167.6 vs Sam Houston: 138.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.5 vs Sam Houston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 11.5 14
TTU Score 46.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 21.5 24.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 167.6 / 138.9 219.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 422.9 / 445.3 470.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +4000 / -20000 → -- / --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +37.5 / -37.5 → +34.5 / -34.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
SHSU
TTU
SHSU
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
NFL Veterans Fire Back at Deion Sanders Hot Seat Talk: 'Stupides…
yahoo 2 days, 18 hours ago
Texas Tech QB Thomas Castellanos to Attend Colorado Game in Stre…
yahoo 4 days, 23 hours ago
Houston's Run Defense Faces UCF Challenge After Mixed Results
si 6 days, 23 hours ago
Houston Looks to Rebound at Georgia Southern After Tough Loss to…
yahoo 1 week, 5 days ago
Big 12 Surges in AP Top 25 as Three Teams Crack Top 15, Playoff …
ctinsider 2 weeks, 3 days ago