Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Texas Tech SHSU @ TTU

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

1-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Galaxy Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

4-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
@
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
Player
Cal Joseph None-None
Will Karoll None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
3%
📊
TEXAS TECH
97%
SAM HOUSTON --
TEXAS TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 55%
Under 56.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
-34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Texas Tech)
Sam HoustonSHSU (+34.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (-34.5)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-34.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

0.6%

Texas Tech Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TTU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

SHSU By 1-6 points

0.4%

SHSU By 7-13 points

0.1%

TTU By 1-6 points

1.4%

TTU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
11.5
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 11
46.5
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
17
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 11
38
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Tech Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas Tech Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech (-34.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Sam Houston (+34.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +21.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 SHSU @ TTU 14 - 49
Sep 5, 2015 SHSU @ TTU 45 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.0% more
Texas Tech: 1.6 vs Sam Houston: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.7% more
Texas Tech: 167.6 vs Sam Houston: 138.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.5 vs Sam Houston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 11.5 14
TTU Score 46.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 21.5 24.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 167.6 / 138.9 219.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 422.9 / 445.3 470.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +4000 / -20000 → -- / --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +37.5 / -37.5 → +34.5 / -34.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
TTU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: -6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
TTU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: -6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.8
TTU
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
SHSU
TTU
SHSU
ML
86% 6-1
88% 7-1
100% 7-0
75% 6-2
ATS
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
TTL
71% 5-2
88% 7-1
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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