Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ole Miss @ Florida MISS @ FLA

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

3-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

4-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
@
Alec Clark
KEY GAME

Alec Clark

#38 | Punter
Player
Oscar Bird None-None
Alec Clark None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLE MISS
78%
📊
FLORIDA
22%
▲ Edge: +36.20% (MISS)
OLE MISS 41% Book Odds: +142
FLORIDA 63% Book Odds: -170
Book Implied: 41.30% / 63%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.6
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 (Over)
Over 58.5 64%
Under 58.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Ole Miss)
Ole MissMISS (+4) 0 FloridaFLA (-4)
Ole Miss Rebels (+4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ole Miss Cover

82.3%

Florida Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MISS -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-6 points

13.5%

MISS By 7-13 points

19.3%

FLA By 1-6 points

8.6%

FLA By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38.8
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 27.20
25.8
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 31.20
Simulated Score
30
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 27.20
31
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 31.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ole Miss Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Florida Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Sim Ole Miss (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 64.6
B
Sim o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MISS @ FLA 28 - 52
Nov 15, 2025 FLA @ MISS 24 - 34
Nov 23, 2024 MISS @ FLA 17 - 24
Sep 26, 2020 FLA @ MISS 51 - 35
Oct 3, 2015 MISS @ FLA 10 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +81.7% more
Florida: 221.8 vs Ole Miss: 122.1
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Florida: 1.3 vs Ole Miss: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 38.8 28
FLA Score 25.8 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 25.4 27.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 221.8 / 122.1 302.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 474.2 / 457.1 498.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105 → +142 / -170 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +4 / -4 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 58.5
28%TICKETS72%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
FLA
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 12.7 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
FLA Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.7 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
FLA
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +11.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
MISS
FLA
MISS
ML
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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