Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas A&M @ LSU TA&M @ LSU

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

2-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA)
View Odds Details →

LSU

LSULSU

3-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
David Olano
KEY GAME

David Olano

#24 | Place kicker
@
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
Player
David Olano None-None
Grant Chadwick None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS A&M
61%
📊
LSU
39%
▲ Edge: +34.40% (TA&M)
TEXAS A&M 27% Book Odds: +275
LSU 78% Book Odds: -345
Book Implied: 26.70% / 77.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.6
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 (Over)
Over 52.5 65%
Under 52.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.5 points (Texas A&M)
Texas A&MTA&M (+8.5) 0 LSULSU (-8.5)
Texas A&M Aggies (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas A&M Cover

64.0%

LSU Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TA&M -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

TA&M By 1-6 points

16.9%

TA&M By 7-13 points

18.5%

LSU By 1-6 points

14.2%

LSU By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31.8
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 22
26.8
LSU
Book Implied: 30.50
Simulated Score
26
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 22
35
LSU
Book Implied: 30.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas A&M Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim LSU Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas A&M (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim LSU (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.6
B
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 TA&M @ LSU 6 - 35
Oct 25, 2025 TA&M @ LSU 49 - 25
Oct 26, 2024 LSU @ TA&M 23 - 38
Nov 25, 2023 TA&M @ LSU 30 - 42
Nov 26, 2022 LSU @ TA&M 23 - 38
Key Model Drivers
No driver metrics compiled for this game.
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 31.8 6
LSU Score 26.8 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 22.3 20.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 163.9 / 162.7 194.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 413.2 / 389.1 506.0 / 197.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +275 / -345 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +8.5 / -8.5
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 52.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: -4.3
LSU Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: -4.3
LSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.7
LSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
TA&M
LSU
TA&M
ML
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
ATS
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
83% 5-1
17% 1-5
TTL
67% 4-2
17% 1-5
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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