OREGON
OREGONORE
3-1 | Road
41
USC
USCUSC
4-1 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Bailey Ettridge
#39 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Lachlan Carrigan
#35 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Bailey Ettridge | None-None |
| Lachlan Carrigan | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
51%
USC
49%
▲ Edge: +9.70% (USC)
OREGON
65%
Book Odds: -185
USC
39%
Book Odds: +154
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 60.5
39%
Under 60.5
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
USC
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USC +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
ORE By 1-6 points
16.6%
ORE By 7-13 points
15.8%
USC By 1-6 points
16.3%
USC By 7-13 points
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon
27.8
OREGON
Book Implied: 32
USC
27.2
USC
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
Oregon
25
OREGON
Book Implied: 32
USC
41
USC
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oregon
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
USC
Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
USC (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +0.6
C
Sim
USC (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
u60.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim
o60.5
Win
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 26, 2026
ORE @ USC
41 - 27
Nov 22, 2025
USC @ ORE
27 - 42
Nov 11, 2023
USC @ ORE
27 - 36
Dec 18, 2020
ORE @ USC
31 - 24
Nov 2, 2019
ORE @ USC
56 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5)
+9.4% more
Oregon: 516.2
vs
USC: 467.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORE Score
27.8
41
USC Score
27.2
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.3 / 25.8
26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
166.6 / 174.9
120.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.6 / 0.5
0.18 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards
467.6 / 516.2
446.0 / 504.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118
→
-185 / +154
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-3.5 / +3.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 63.5
→
60.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 11.9
ATS +/-: -7.4
USC
Advantage
7-2-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
Advantage
3-5-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 11.9
ATS +/-: -7.4
USC
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: -1.3
USC
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
ORE
USC
ORE
ML
78%
7-2
62%
5-3
67%
6-3
50%
4-4
ATS
56%
5-4
25%
2-6
56%
5-4
50%
4-4
TTL
44%
4-5
25%
2-6
33%
3-6
50%
4-4
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