Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ USC ORE @ USC

OREGON

OREGONORE

3-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

4-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Bailey Ettridge
KEY GAME

Bailey Ettridge

#39 | Punter
@
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
Player
Bailey Ettridge None-None
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
51%
📊
USC
49%
▲ Edge: +9.70% (USC)
OREGON 65% Book Odds: -185
USC 39% Book Odds: +154
Book Implied: 64.90% / 39.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 60.5 39%
Under 60.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
USC
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (USC)
OregonORE (-3.5) 0 USCUSC (+3.5)
USC Trojans (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

48.3%

USC Cover

51.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USC +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

ORE By 1-6 points

16.6%

ORE By 7-13 points

15.8%

USC By 1-6 points

16.3%

USC By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
OREGON
Book Implied: 32
27.2
USC
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
25
OREGON
Book Implied: 32
41
USC
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim USC Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI USC (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.6
C
Sim USC (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim o60.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ORE @ USC 41 - 27
Nov 22, 2025 USC @ ORE 27 - 42
Nov 11, 2023 USC @ ORE 27 - 36
Dec 18, 2020 ORE @ USC 31 - 24
Nov 2, 2019 ORE @ USC 56 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Oregon: 516.2 vs USC: 467.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 27.8 41
USC Score 27.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 25.8 26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 166.6 / 174.9 120.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.18 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 467.6 / 516.2 446.0 / 504.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118 → -185 / +154 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 63.5 → 60.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
USC Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
USC
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.1
USC
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
ORE
USC
ORE
ML
100% 7-0
60% 3-2
86% 6-1
40% 2-3
ATS
71% 5-2
20% 1-4
57% 4-3
40% 2-3
TTL
57% 4-3
20% 1-4
43% 3-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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