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CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

3-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

2-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Nolan Hauser
KEY GAME

Nolan Hauser

#81 | Place kicker
@
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
Player
Nolan Hauser None-None
Angus Davies None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CLEMSON
43%
📊
CALIFORNIA
57%
▲ Edge: +11.60% (CAL)
CLEMSON 59% Book Odds: -142
CALIFORNIA 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 (Over)
Over 52.5 59%
Under 52.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (California)
ClemsonCLEM (-2.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+2.5)
California Golden Bears (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Clemson Cover

41.5%

California Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CLEM By 1-6 points

15.3%

CLEM By 7-13 points

12.9%

CAL By 1-6 points

17.0%

CAL By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 27.50
29.2
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
19
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 27.50
32
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI California Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim California Loss
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI California (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim California (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.4
B
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 CLEM @ CAL 24 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +32.5% more
California: 445.9 vs Clemson: 336.4
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
California: 23.2 vs Clemson: 18.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
California: 0.4 vs Clemson: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Clemson: 135.5 vs California: 105.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLEM Score 26.2 24
CAL Score 29.2 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 18.8 13.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 105.1 / 135.5 86.0 / 255.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 445.9 / 336.4 231.0 / 363.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105 → -142 / +120 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 52.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
CAL
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLEM Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
CAL
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
CAL
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
CLEM
CAL
CLEM
ML
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
TTL
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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