Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Northwestern @ Indiana NU @ IU

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

2-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

4-0  |  Home

29
Key Game
Nikola Dugandzic
KEY GAME

Nikola Dugandzic

#92 | Punter
@
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
Player
Nikola Dugandzic None-None
Billy Gowers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHWESTERN
10%
📊
INDIANA
90%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (NU)
NORTHWESTERN 10% Book Odds: +950
INDIANA 94% Book Odds: -1639
Book Implied: 9.50% / 94.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.4
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 (Over)
Over 49.5 74%
Under 49.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
-20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Indiana)
NorthwesternNU (+20.5) 0 IndianaIU (-20.5)
Indiana Hoosiers (-20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Northwestern Cover

5.0%

Indiana Cover

95.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

NU By 1-6 points

2.9%

NU By 7-13 points

1.3%

IU By 1-6 points

6.5%

IU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 14.50
42.2
INDIANA
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
17
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 14.50
36
INDIANA
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim Indiana Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Indiana (-20.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
C
Sim Northwestern (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +19.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.4
A
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 NU @ IU 23 - 29
Oct 5, 2024 IU @ NU 41 - 24
Nov 2, 2019 NU @ IU 3 - 34
Oct 22, 2016 IU @ NU 14 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.7% more
Indiana: 212.5 vs Northwestern: 162.6
Total Yards (L5) +14.6% more
Indiana: 455.0 vs Northwestern: 396.9
First Downs (L5) +11.5% more
Indiana: 21.8 vs Northwestern: 19.5
Turnovers (L5) +74.3% more
Northwestern: 1.1 vs Indiana: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 19.2 23
IU Score 42.2 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 19.5 24.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 212.5 / 162.6 271.0 / 32.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 455.0 / 396.9 472.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1600 / -4000 → +950 / -1639 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 49.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.9 ATS +/-: +8.8
IU Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: -4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 14.9 ATS +/-: +8.8
IU
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: -4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +2.0
IU
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -7.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
NU
IU
NU
ML
89% 8-1
86% 6-1
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
ATS
33% 3-6
57% 4-3
78% 7-2
62% 5-3
TTL
33% 3-6
100% 7-0
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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