Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Army @ Temple ARMY @ TEM

ARMY

ARMYARMY

2-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 4:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

1-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
@
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
Player
Dawson Jones None-None
Dante Atton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
58%
📊
TEMPLE
42%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (TEM)
ARMY 66% Book Odds: -198
TEMPLE 38% Book Odds: +164
Book Implied: 66.40% / 37.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 54%
Under 48.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
ARMY
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Army)
ArmyARMY (-3.5) 0 TempleTEM (+3.5)
Army Black Knights (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Army Cover

60.1%

Temple Cover

39.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARMY -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)

ARMY By 1-6 points

17.0%

ARMY By 7-13 points

17.8%

TEM By 1-6 points

14.9%

TEM By 7-13 points

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
ARMY
Book Implied: 26
23.2
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
27
ARMY
Book Implied: 26
22
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Army Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Army Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Army (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim Army (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 ARMY @ TEM 21 - 17
Nov 8, 2025 TEM @ ARMY 13 - 14
Sep 26, 2024 ARMY @ TEM 42 - 14
Oct 21, 2017 TEM @ ARMY 28 - 31
Sep 2, 2016 ARMY @ TEM 28 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.6% more
Army: 312.7 vs Temple: 195.1
First Downs (L5) +18.6% more
Army: 21.9 vs Temple: 17.8
Total Yards (L5) +15.6% more
Army: 410.4 vs Temple: 346.2
Turnovers (L5) +26.0% more
Temple: 0.9 vs Army: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score 26.8 21
TEM Score 23.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 21.9 17.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 195.1 / 312.7 217.0 / 279.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 346.2 / 410.4 459.0 / 315.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -198 / +164 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.8
TEM
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.8
TEM Advantage
4-1-1 (80.0%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.7
TEM
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEM
ARMY
TEM
ARMY
ML
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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