Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ Coastal LIB @ CCU

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

3-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Thu, Sep 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC)
View Odds Details →

COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

1-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
@
Roland Podesta
KEY GAME

Roland Podesta

#42 | Punter
Player
Sam Crossan None-None
Roland Podesta None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
37%
📊
COASTAL
63%
▲ Edge: +17.60% (CCU)
LIBERTY 59% Book Odds: -142
COASTAL 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 50.5 48%
Under 50.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 points (Coastal Carolina)
LibertyLIB (-2.5) 0 CoastalCCU (+2.5)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

34.5%

Coastal Cover

65.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CCU -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCU)

LIB By 1-6 points

13.8%

LIB By 7-13 points

10.7%

CCU By 1-6 points

16.8%

CCU By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 26.50
26.8
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
26
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 26.50
23
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Coastal Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Liberty Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Coastal (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.6
A
Sim Liberty (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 LIB @ CCU 34 - 17
Dec 26, 2020 LIB @ CCU 37 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.0% more
Liberty: 198.6 vs Coastal Carolina: 139.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Liberty: 0.5 vs Coastal Carolina: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 21.2 34
CCU Score 26.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 21.3 18.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 139.0 / 198.6 79.0 / 263.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 385.8 / 414.4 292.0 / 485.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → -142 / +120 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 50.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
CCU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
CCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
CCU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCU
LIB
CCU
LIB
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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