MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
74-77 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
80-71 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Corbin Burnes
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 13-10 | 3.78 | 1.22 | 200.0 | 143 |
| Corbin Burnes | 0-0 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 3.0 | 2 |
13-10
W-L
0-0
3.78
ERA
Ldr 0.00
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.33
200.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
143 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
41%
DIAMONDBACKS
59%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (ARI)
MARLINS
48%
Book Odds: +110
DIAMONDBACKS
57%
Book Odds: -132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Arizona
5.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 2
Sep 14, 2026
MIA @ ARI
7 - 8
Jun 11, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.727
▲
OPS
.720
168
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+78.0% more
Arizona: 0.9
vs
Miami: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+27.0% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
Miami: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.8% more
Arizona: 8.7
vs
Miami: 7.4
Total Bases (L5)
+9.0% more
Arizona: 15.7
vs
Miami: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.5
7
ARI Score
5.5
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.5 / 9.6
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.4
13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 14.4
22.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.3
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113
→
+110 / -132
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIA
ARI
MIA
ML
54%
87-74
48%
78-84
54%
86-74
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
91-71
56%
89-71
54%
86-74
TTL
52%
80-73-8
56%
88-69-5
49%
73-77-9
53%
82-73-5
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