SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
62-89 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
75-76 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp | 9-13 | 4.00 | 1.28 | 150.2 | 139 |
| Quinn Mathews | 1-3 | 4.11 | 1.50 | 30.2 | 28 |
9-13
W-L
1-3
4.00 Ldr
ERA
4.11
1.28 Ldr
WHIP
1.50
150.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
30.2
139 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
28
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
52%
CARDINALS
48%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (SF)
GIANTS
44%
Book Odds: +130
CARDINALS
61%
Book Odds: -157
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
57%
Under 8.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
St. Louis
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
SF @ STL
6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
SF @ STL
10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
SF @ STL
1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026
STL @ SF
6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
STL @ SF
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.706
▲
OPS
.691
178
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+71.1% more
San Francisco: 1.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+30.8% more
San Francisco: 4.1
vs
St. Louis: 2.8
Total Bases (L5)
+19.5% more
San Francisco: 14.0
vs
St. Louis: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.0
1
STL Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.2
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 7.1
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 14.0
9.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.1
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +127 / -140
→
+130 / -157
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SF
STL
SF
ML
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
53%
85-75
ATS
56%
89-70
62%
100-60
53%
85-76
52%
83-77
TTL
46%
68-81-10
55%
82-68-10
50%
76-75-10
46%
68-81-11
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