Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Twins NYY @ MIN

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

87-63  |  Road

8
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

70-80  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
Dean Kremer
STARTING PITCHER

Dean Kremer

#13 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Warren 10-6 4.05 1.36 142.1 141
Dean Kremer 3-5 5.65 1.30 71.2 69
10-6 W-L 3-5
4.05 Ldr ERA 5.65
1.36 WHIP Ldr 1.30
142.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 71.2
141 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 69
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
48%
📊
TWINS
52%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (MIN)
YANKEES 57% Book Odds: -132
TWINS 48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 56.90% / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Minnesota)
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+1.5)
Minnesota Twins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

36.3%

Twins Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NYY By 1-2 runs

15.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

9.5%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
5.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
52% Win Prob
C
Sim Twins Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 NYY @ MIN 4 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 NYY @ MIN 8 - 1
Sep 14, 2026 NYY @ MIN 8 - 3
Jul 5, 2026 MIN @ NYY 6 - 1
Jul 4, 2026 MIN @ NYY 11 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Minnesota MIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
1.041 ▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9250.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs New York: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +49.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Home Runs (L5) +41.9% more
New York: 1.7 vs Minnesota: 1.0
OPS (Season) +32.1%
New York: 1.0% vs Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.8 8
MIN Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.1 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.7 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.5 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 12.9 11.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.2 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119 → -132 / +110 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
87%TICKETS13%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
94%TICKETS6%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NYY
MIN
NYY
ML
52% 84-78
47% 76-85
50% 80-81
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 95-67
59% 95-66
59% 95-66
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 78-75-9
53% 81-73-7
53% 80-72-9
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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