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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

88-63  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

84-67  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Reynaldo Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Reynaldo Lopez

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
David Peterson
STARTING PITCHER

David Peterson

#19 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Reynaldo Lopez 4-4 4.13 1.39 76.1 71
David Peterson 7-8 5.28 1.58 131.1 117
4-4 W-L 7-8
4.13 Ldr ERA 5.28
1.39 Ldr WHIP 1.58
76.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 131.1
71 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 117
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
31%
📊
CUBS
69%
▲ Edge: +11.80% (CHC)
BRAVES 47% Book Odds: +113
CUBS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5 46%
Under 9.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
BravesATL (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Chicago Cubs (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

30.9%

Cubs Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

ATL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4
5.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cubs Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Cubs Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 ATL @ CHC 4 - 8
Sep 15, 2026 ATL @ CHC 6 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 ATL @ CHC 3 - 7
May 14, 2026 CHC @ ATL 2 - 0
May 13, 2026 CHC @ ATL 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Chicago CHC
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.757 ▲
OPS
.374
1 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +58.2% more
Chicago: 3.7 vs Atlanta: 2.3
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Chicago: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +16.2% more
Chicago: 6.7 vs Atlanta: 5.8
Runs per Game (Season) +90.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.5 3
CHC Score 5.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 10.2 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 5.8 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 15.3 16.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.3 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -148 → +113 / -136 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
42%TICKETS58%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 9.5 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ATL
CHC
ATL
ML
58% 93-68
46% 77-90
51% 82-79
54% 90-78
ATS
61% 97-63-1
57% 96-71
47% 75-85-1
52% 87-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 83-73-11
46% 72-83-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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