LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
91-59 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
70-80 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tarik Skubal
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 9-7 | 2.84 | 0.97 | 139.2 | 164 |
| Nick Lodolo | 3-4 | 5.12 | 1.53 | 89.2 | 75 |
9-7
W-L
3-4
2.84 Ldr
ERA
5.12
0.97 Ldr
WHIP
1.53
139.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
89.2
164 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
75
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
59%
REDS
41%
▲ Edge: +5.30% (CIN)
DODGERS
69%
Book Odds: -219
REDS
36%
Book Odds: +178
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
LAD By 3-4 runs
17.2%
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers
Win
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
LAD @ CIN
8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
LAD @ CIN
2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
LAD @ CIN
4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026
LAD @ CIN
4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
CIN @ LAD
1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.762
▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+30.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.0
vs
Cincinnati: 2.8
Home Runs (L5)
+21.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.5
vs
Cincinnati: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+6.3%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.2
4
CIN Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.8
4.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 8.2
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 14.4
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.0
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -207 / +170
→
-219 / +178
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LAD
CIN
LAD
ML
55%
88-71
56%
92-73
49%
79-81
48%
79-87
ATS
54%
86-73
59%
98-67
50%
80-80
43%
72-94
TTL
53%
81-73-5
48%
77-82-6
54%
83-72-5
44%
70-90-6
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