CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
77-73 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
76-75 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Newcomb | 2-4 | 2.77 | 1.14 | 84.1 | 78 |
| Gavin Williams | 13-7 | 3.78 | 1.09 | 169.0 | 228 |
2-4
W-L
13-7
2.77 Ldr
ERA
3.78
1.14
WHIP
Ldr 1.09
84.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 169.0
78
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 228
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
37%
GUARDIANS
63%
WHITE SOX
40%
Book Odds: +148
GUARDIANS
64%
Book Odds: -180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians
Loss
63% Win Prob
A
Sim
White Sox
Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.826
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+76.0% more
Cleveland: 1.5
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+71.4% more
Cleveland: 16.6
vs
Chicago: 9.7
Hits (L5)
+67.0% more
Cleveland: 9.5
vs
Chicago: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.8
7
CLE Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.5 / 5.7
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 9.5
14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 9.7
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.0 / 5.1
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+148 / -180
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHW
CLE
CHW
ML
54%
87-74
49%
81-86
49%
80-82
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
99-68
59%
95-67
56%
93-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
96-69-2
43%
69-90-2
51%
84-81-2
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