Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Elche vs Real Sociedad Elche vs Real Sociedad

ELCHEELCHE

1-2-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Mon, Sep 7 • 3:30 PM ET
Estadio Martínez Valero

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

3-1-3  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
ELCHE
61%
DRAW
21%
REAL SOCIEDAD
18%
▲ Edge: +4% (Real Sociedad)
32% Book Odds: +215
DRAW --
44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 31.70% / % / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 53%
Under 2.5 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Elche)
ElcheElche (+0.5) 0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.5% / 41.5%

Shots (On Goal)

20(10) / 13(6)

Corners

6 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Elche -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Elche By 1 goal

26.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

36.9%

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

11.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
2
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Elche Loss
52% Win Prob
B
Sim Real Sociedad Win
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Elche (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Real Sociedad (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2026 Elche vs Real Sociedad 2 - 3
Feb 7, 2026 Real Sociedad vs Elche 3 - 1
Nov 7, 2025 Elche vs Real Sociedad 1 - 1
Mar 19, 2023 Real Sociedad vs Elche 2 - 0
Aug 27, 2022 Elche vs Real Sociedad 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Elche: 2.0 vs Real Sociedad: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +75.0% more
Elche: 7.0 vs Real Sociedad: 4.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Elche: 2.0 vs Real Sociedad: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +11.1% more
Real Sociedad: 9.0 vs Elche: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Sociedad Score 1.0 3
Elche Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Elche (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Elche Share: 66.7% Real Sociedad Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Elche
Real Sociedad
Elche
Real Sociedad
ML
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
ATS
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
TTL
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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