Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Sunderland vs Arsenal Sunderland vs Arsenal

SUNDERLANDSUNDERLAND

1-1-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:00 PM ET
Stadium of Light

ARSENALARSENAL

4-0-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
SUNDERLAND
9%
DRAW
13%
ARSENAL
78%
▲ Edge: +4% (Arsenal)
16% Book Odds: +540
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +280
61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 15.60% / 26.30% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 2.25 73%
Under 2.25 27%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-2.0
ARSENAL
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Arsenal)
SunderlandSunderland (+0.8) 0 ArsenalArsenal (-0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

42.5% / 57.5%

Shots (On Goal)

12(3) / 11(5)

Corners

4 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

4/1 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

9.1%

Cover

90.9%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Arsenal -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Arsenal)

Sunderland By 1 goal

3.8%

Sunderland By 2+ goals

1.0%

Arsenal By 1 goal

21.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

63.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 0.80
3
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
0
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 0.80
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arsenal Win
65% Win Prob
A
Sim Arsenal Win
81% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arsenal (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Sim Arsenal (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Sim u2.3
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Sunderland vs Arsenal 0 - 2
Feb 7, 2026 Arsenal vs Sunderland 3 - 0
Nov 8, 2025 Sunderland vs Arsenal 2 - 2
May 16, 2017 Arsenal vs Sunderland 2 - 0
Oct 29, 2016 Sunderland vs Arsenal 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +300.0% more
Arsenal: 1.0 vs Sunderland: 4.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 0.0 vs Sunderland: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Arsenal: 10.0 vs Sunderland: 6.0
Wins (L5) +66.7% more
Arsenal: 5.0 vs Sunderland: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Arsenal Score 3.0 2
Sunderland Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 9.4% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 77.5%
Sunderland (Home) vs Arsenal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sunderland Share: 25.0% Arsenal Share: 75.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sunderland
Arsenal
Sunderland
Arsenal
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
71% 2-1-1
TTL
22% 1-3
40% 1-1-2
78% 3-1
60% 1-1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.