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SPURSSPURS

0-2-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:30 PM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EVERTONEVERTON

2-3-0  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
61%
DRAW
21%
EVERTON
18%
▲ Edge: +36.50% (Everton)
50% Book Odds: +102
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +277
26% Book Odds: +281
Book Implied: 49.50% / 26.50% / 26.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 58%
Under 2.75 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SPURS
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Spurs)
SpursSpurs (-0.5) 0 EvertonEverton (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

62.3% / 37.7%

Shots (On Goal)

14(2) / 12(3)

Corners

5 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tottenham Hotspur -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tottenham Hotspur)

Tottenham Hotspur By 1 goal

26.1%

Tottenham Hotspur By 2+ goals

36.9%

Everton By 1 goal

11.1%

Everton By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.60
1
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.60
1
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tottenham Hotspur Loss
37% Win Prob
C
Sim Tottenham Hotspur Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tottenham Hotspur (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Tottenham Hotspur (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Spurs vs Everton 0 - 0
Oct 26, 2025 Everton vs Spurs 0 - 3
Jan 19, 2025 Everton vs Spurs 3 - 2
Aug 24, 2024 Spurs vs Everton 4 - 0
Feb 3, 2024 Everton vs Spurs 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Everton: 0.0 vs Spurs: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Everton: 4.0 vs Spurs: 8.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Everton: 2.0 vs Spurs: 1.0
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Everton: 3.0 vs Spurs: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Everton Score 1.0 0
Tottenham Hotspur Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tottenham Hotspur (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tottenham Hotspur Share: 66.7% Everton Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tottenham Hotspur
Everton
Tottenham Hotspur
Everton
ML
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
ATS
75% 3-1-1
89% 4-0
25% 1-3-1
33% 1-3
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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