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CHELSEACHELSEA

2-1-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 10:00 AM ET
Stamford Bridge

HULLHULL

2-2-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
CHELSEA
61%
DRAW
21%
HULL
18%
▲ Edge: +47.30% (Hull City)
82% Book Odds: -450
DRAW 14% Book Odds: +640
7% Book Odds: +1250
Book Implied: 81.80% / 13.50% / 7.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 28%
Under 3.25 72%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
HULL
Book Goal Line
+2
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Hull)
ChelseaChelsea (-2) 0 HullHull (+2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

67.8% / 32.2%

Shots (On Goal)

12(7) / 13(5)

Corners

11 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 5/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Hull City +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Hull City)

Chelsea By 1 goal

26.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

36.9%

Hull City By 1 goal

11.1%

Hull City By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 2.60
1
HULL
Book Implied: 0.60
Simulated Score
3
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 2.60
1
HULL
Book Implied: 0.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chelsea Loss
45% Win Prob
B
Sim Chelsea Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Hull City (+2) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Hull City (+2) Win
Proj Goals: +2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o3.3 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Chelsea vs Hull 2 - 2
Jan 22, 2017 Chelsea vs Hull 2 - 0
Oct 1, 2016 Hull vs Chelsea 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +300.0% more
Chelsea: 16.0 vs Hull: 4.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Chelsea: 4.0 vs Hull: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +400.0% more
Hull: 2.0 vs Chelsea: 10.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Hull: 2.0 vs Chelsea: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Hull City Score 1.0 2
Chelsea Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Chelsea (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Chelsea Share: 66.7% Hull City Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Chelsea
Hull City
Chelsea
Hull City
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
ATS
20% 1-4
100% 4-0-1
78% 3-1
25% 1-3-1
TTL
50% 2-2-1
67% 3-1
75% 3-1-1
25% 1-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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