ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA
1-1-3 | Home
1
NOTTM FORESTNOTTM FOREST
1-2-2 | Away
2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTON VILLA
61%
DRAW
21%
NOTTM FOREST
18%
▲ Edge: +26.60% (Nottingham Forest)
44%
Book Odds: +130
DRAW
29%
Book Odds: +245
30%
Book Odds: +230
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ASTON VILLA
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Aston Villa)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
53.3% / 46.7%
Shots (On Goal)
7(5) / 22(7)
Corners
6 / 1
Cards (Y/R)
2/0 - 5/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Aston Villa -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Aston Villa)
Aston Villa By 1 goal
26.1%
Aston Villa By 2+ goals
36.9%
Nottingham Forest By 1 goal
11.1%
Nottingham Forest By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Aston Villa
2
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
Nottm Forest
1
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
Aston Villa
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
Nottm Forest
0
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aston Villa
Loss
43% Win Prob
C
Sim
Aston Villa
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aston Villa (-0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Aston Villa (-0.25)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o2.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim
u2.5
Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest
1 - 2
Apr 12, 2026
Nottm Forest vs Aston Villa
1 - 1
Jan 3, 2026
Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest
3 - 1
Apr 5, 2025
Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest
2 - 1
Dec 14, 2024
Nottm Forest vs Aston Villa
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Nottm Forest: 2.0
vs
Aston Villa: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+80.0% more
Nottm Forest: 5.0
vs
Aston Villa: 9.0
Losses (L5)
+50.0% more
Nottm Forest: 2.0
vs
Aston Villa: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Nottingham Forest Score
1.0
2
Aston Villa Score
2.0
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Aston Villa (Home)
vs
Nottingham Forest (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
ML
60%
3-2
0%
0-5
40%
2-3
0%
0-5
ATS
100%
4-0-1
75%
3-1-1
50%
2-2-1
0%
0-4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
40%
2-3