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BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

0-3-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 10:00 AM ET
Vitality Stadium

BRENTFORDBRENTFORD

2-3-0  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
BOURNEMOUTH
40%
DRAW
21%
BRENTFORD
40%
▲ Edge: +16.90% (Brentford)
42% Book Odds: +139
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
33% Book Odds: +202
Book Implied: 41.80% / 27.80% / 33.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 45%
Under 2.75 55%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
BRENTFORD
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Brentford)
BournemouthBournemouth (-0.2) 0 BrentfordBrentford (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.6% / 43.4%

Shots (On Goal)

20(10) / 8(2)

Corners

2 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Brentford 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brentford)

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

21.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

15.9%

Brentford By 1 goal

21.1%

Brentford By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.50
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.50
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
43% Win Prob
C
Sim Brentford Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brentford (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Brentford (+0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Bournemouth vs Brentford 2 - 2
Mar 3, 2026 Bournemouth vs Brentford 0 - 0
Dec 27, 2025 Brentford vs Bournemouth 4 - 1
Mar 15, 2025 Bournemouth vs Brentford 1 - 2
Nov 9, 2024 Brentford vs Bournemouth 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Brentford: 3.0 vs Bournemouth: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Brentford: 0.0 vs Bournemouth: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +133.3% more
Brentford: 3.0 vs Bournemouth: 7.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Brentford: 18.0 vs Bournemouth: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Brentford Score 2.0 2
AFC Bournemouth Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
AFC Bournemouth (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AFC Bournemouth Share: 50.0% Brentford Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFC Bournemouth
Brentford
AFC Bournemouth
Brentford
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
ATS
88% 3-0-1
71% 2-1-1
38% 1-2-1
14% 0-3-1
TTL
75% 3-1-1
56% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
78% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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