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ARSENALARSENAL

4-0-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 11:30 AM ET
Emirates Stadium

CHELSEACHELSEA

2-1-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ARSENAL
61%
DRAW
21%
CHELSEA
18%
▲ Edge: +23.20% (Chelsea)
57% Book Odds: -135
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +295
20% Book Odds: +400
Book Implied: 57.40% / 25.30% / 20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 71%
Under 2.75 29%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ARSENAL
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Arsenal)
ArsenalArsenal (-0.8) 0 ChelseaChelsea (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.6% / 45.4%

Shots (On Goal)

16(9) / 13(5)

Corners

5 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Arsenal -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Arsenal)

Arsenal By 1 goal

26.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

36.9%

Chelsea By 1 goal

11.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.80
1
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.80
1
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arsenal Win
57% Win Prob
A
Sim Arsenal Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arsenal (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Arsenal (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 Arsenal vs Chelsea 2 - 1
Mar 1, 2026 Arsenal vs Chelsea 2 - 1
Nov 30, 2025 Chelsea vs Arsenal 1 - 1
Mar 16, 2025 Arsenal vs Chelsea 1 - 0
Nov 10, 2024 Chelsea vs Arsenal 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Arsenal: 4.0 vs Chelsea: 9.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Chelsea: 0.0 vs Arsenal: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Chelsea: 15.0 vs Arsenal: 10.0
Wins (L5) +33.3% more
Chelsea: 4.0 vs Arsenal: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Chelsea Score 1.0 1
Arsenal Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Arsenal (Home) vs Chelsea (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Arsenal Share: 66.7% Chelsea Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Arsenal
Chelsea
Arsenal
Chelsea
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
71% 2-1-1
78% 3-1
TTL
40% 1-1-2
50% 2-2-1
60% 1-1-2
75% 3-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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