Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Everton vs Man United Everton vs Man United

EVERTONEVERTON

2-3-0  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 9:00 AM ET
Hill Dickinson Stadium

MAN UNITEDMAN UNITED

1-2-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
EVERTON
18%
DRAW
21%
MAN UNITED
61%
▲ Edge: +35% (Everton)
26% Book Odds: +282
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +298
51% Book Odds: -104
Book Implied: 26.20% / 25.10% / 51%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 57%
Under 3.0 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN UNITED
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Man United)
EvertonEverton (+0.5) 0 Man UnitedMan United (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.4% / 54.6%

Shots (On Goal)

18(6) / 14(3)

Corners

4 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester United)

Everton By 1 goal

11.1%

Everton By 2+ goals

4.8%

Manchester United By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester United By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.20
2
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
0
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.20
1
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Manchester United Loss
39% Win Prob
C
Sim Manchester United Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Manchester United (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Manchester United (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 Everton vs Man United 2 - 2
Feb 23, 2026 Everton vs Man United 0 - 1
Nov 24, 2025 Man United vs Everton 0 - 1
Feb 22, 2025 Everton vs Man United 2 - 2
Dec 1, 2024 Man United vs Everton 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +233.3% more
Everton: 3.0 vs Man United: 10.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Everton: 3.0 vs Man United: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Everton: 0.0 vs Man United: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +22.2% more
Everton: 11.0 vs Man United: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Manchester United Score 2.0 2
Everton Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Everton (Home) vs Manchester United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Everton Share: 33.3% Manchester United Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Everton
Manchester United
Everton
Manchester United
ML
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
ATS
89% 4-0
80% 4-1
33% 1-3
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.