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TIJUANATIJUANA

4-2-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Caliente

QUERETAROQUERETARO

5-2-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
TIJUANA
35%
DRAW
31%
QUERETARO
35%
▲ Edge: +25.40% (Querétaro)
50% Book Odds: -101
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +248
25% Book Odds: +307
Book Implied: 50.20% / 28.70% / 24.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 48%
Under 2.5 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
QUERETARO
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Queretaro)
TijuanaTijuana (-0.5) 0 QueretaroQueretaro (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

63.1% / 36.9%

Shots (On Goal)

24(4) / 8(4)

Corners

13 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 5/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Querétaro 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Querétaro)

Tijuana By 1 goal

21.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

15.9%

Querétaro By 1 goal

21.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.50
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.50
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
38% Win Prob
C
Sim Tijuana Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Querétaro (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Tijuana (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 Tijuana vs Queretaro 0 - 1
Jan 17, 2026 Tijuana vs Queretaro 2 - 1
Jan 14, 2026 Queretaro vs Tijuana 1 - 2
Oct 22, 2025 Queretaro vs Tijuana 1 - 0
Jul 11, 2025 Tijuana vs Queretaro 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Queretaro: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Queretaro: 4.0 vs Tijuana: 9.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 1.0 vs Tijuana: 2.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Querétaro Score 1.0 1
Tijuana Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Tijuana (Home) vs Querétaro (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tijuana Share: 50.0% Querétaro Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tijuana
Querétaro
Tijuana
Querétaro
ML
22% 2-7
22% 2-7
44% 4-5
22% 2-7
ATS
75% 6-2-1
71% 5-2-2
50% 4-4-1
25% 2-6-1
TTL
67% 6-3
62% 5-3-1
44% 4-5
50% 4-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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