Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Necaxa vs Puebla Necaxa vs Puebla

NECAXANECAXA

2-2-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Victoria

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-2-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NECAXA
35%
DRAW
31%
PUEBLA
35%
▲ Edge: +22% (Puebla)
49% Book Odds: +106
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +271
28% Book Odds: +257
Book Implied: 48.50% / 27% / 28%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 50%
Under 2.75 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Puebla)
NecaxaNecaxa (-0.5) 0 PueblaPuebla (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.8% / 44.2%

Shots (On Goal)

9(2) / 12(4)

Corners

8 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/1 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Necaxa By 1 goal

21.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

15.9%

Puebla By 1 goal

21.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw Loss
41% Win Prob
C
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Puebla (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Puebla (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 Necaxa vs Puebla 0 - 1
Mar 13, 2026 Puebla vs Necaxa 0 - 0
Mar 7, 2026 Necaxa vs Puebla 2 - 1
Sep 23, 2025 Puebla vs Necaxa 2 - 2
Sep 19, 2025 Necaxa vs Puebla 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Puebla: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Puebla: 8.0 vs Necaxa: 4.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Necaxa: 2.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +28.6% more
Necaxa: 7.0 vs Puebla: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.0 1
Necaxa Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Necaxa (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Necaxa Share: 50.0% Puebla Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Necaxa
Puebla
Necaxa
Puebla
ML
40% 4-6
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
ATS
60% 6-4
62% 5-3-2
60% 6-4
64% 4-2-3
TTL
60% 6-4
44% 4-5-1
90% 9-1
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.