PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
75-75 | Road
4
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
83-67 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 7-9 | 4.25 | 1.34 | 142.0 | 129 |
| Matthew Boyd | 8-4 | 4.03 | 1.22 | 109.1 | 86 |
7-9
W-L
8-4
4.25
ERA
Ldr 4.03
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
142.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
109.1
129 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
86
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
37%
CUBS
63%
PIRATES
42%
Book Odds: +141
CUBS
63%
Book Odds: -171
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.80
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.80
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734
▲
OPS
.374
186
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+24.9% more
Chicago: 14.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.6
Home Runs (L5)
+23.0% more
Chicago: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+8.5% more
Chicago: 8.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
4
CHC Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.6
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 6.6
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 11.6
9.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.3
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -209
→
+141 / -171
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58%
93-68
52%
82-77
51%
82-79
52%
85-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
81-74-6
47%
72-81-6
46%
72-83-6
50%
79-78-6
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