CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
76-73 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
74-76 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | 8-7 | 3.58 | 1.20 | 156.0 | 169 |
| Michael McGreevy | 6-9 | 3.92 | 1.25 | 154.0 | 106 |
8-7
W-L
6-9
3.58 Ldr
ERA
3.92
1.20 Ldr
WHIP
1.25
156.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
154.0
169 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
106
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
43%
CARDINALS
57%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (STL)
WHITE SOX
54%
Book Odds: -117
CARDINALS
51%
Book Odds: -103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
St. Louis
5.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CHW @ STL
1 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
CHW @ STL
6 - 5
Sep 11, 2026
CHW @ STL
3 - 7
Jun 19, 2025
STL @ CHW
8 - 6
Jun 17, 2025
STL @ CHW
12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
St. Louis
STL
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.826
▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16600.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+44.3% more
St. Louis: 9.4
vs
Chicago: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+26.1% more
St. Louis: 13.9
vs
Chicago: 11.0
Home Runs (L5)
+37.9% more
Chicago: 1.2
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.8
1
STL Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.5
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.8
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.0
6.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.2 / 5.2
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -102
→
-117 / -103
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHW
STL
CHW
ML
53%
85-74
49%
81-86
52%
84-77
56%
94-73
ATS
56%
89-70
59%
99-68
53%
85-76
56%
93-74
TTL
46%
68-81-10
58%
96-69-2
50%
76-75-10
51%
84-81-2
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