CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
76-74 | Road
9
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
70-79 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 5-15 | 4.22 | 1.20 | 170.2 | 133 |
| Joe Ryan | 6-9 | 3.68 | 1.13 | 129.2 | 145 |
5-15
W-L
6-9
4.22
ERA
Ldr 3.68
1.20
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
170.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
129.2
133
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 145
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
37%
TWINS
63%
▲ Edge: +7.20% (MIN)
GUARDIANS
49%
Book Odds: +104
TWINS
56%
Book Odds: -126
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
66%
Under 8.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Minnesota
5.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
63% Win Prob
A
Sim
Twins
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CLE @ MIN
9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
CLE @ MIN
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
CLE @ MIN
5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026
MIN @ CLE
3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026
MIN @ CLE
10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+16.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+15.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+2.4%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
9
MIN Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.4 / 7.3
6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.8
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 11.4
11.0 / 27.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.5
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +103 / -125
→
+104 / -126
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CLE
MIN
CLE
ML
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
95-67
58%
93-68
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
55%
88-71-2
53%
80-72-9
43%
69-90-2
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