CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
70-79 | Road
4
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
93-57 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | 15-3 | 2.73 | 1.14 | 148.1 | 176 |
| Robert Gasser | 4-5 | 4.43 | 1.28 | 91.1 | 87 |
15-3
W-L
4-5
2.73 Ldr
ERA
4.43
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
148.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
91.1
176 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
87
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
53%
BREWERS
47%
▲ Edge: +15% (CIN)
REDS
38%
Book Odds: +164
BREWERS
67%
Book Odds: -200
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
3.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CIN @ MIL
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
CIN @ MIL
9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026
CIN @ MIL
0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026
MIL @ CIN
8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026
MIL @ CIN
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.699
OPS
▲
.743
213
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8
vs
Milwaukee: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+27.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.6% more
Cincinnati: 10.0
vs
Milwaukee: 8.2
Home Runs (L5)
+97.7% more
Milwaukee: 2.6
vs
Cincinnati: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.2
4
MIL Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
13.8 / 8.4
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.6 / 1.3
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 10.0
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
23.7 / 14.0
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.6 / 2.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -184
→
+164 / -200
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 10.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CIN
MIL
CIN
ML
62%
101-61
55%
88-71
52%
84-78
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-77-8
54%
83-72-5
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