HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
75-75 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
90-59 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hayden Wesneski
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 5-1 | 3.35 | 1.03 | 45.2 | 36 |
| Freddy Peralta | 8-11 | 4.82 | 1.36 | 153.0 | 142 |
5-1
W-L
8-11
3.35 Ldr
ERA
4.82
1.03 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
45.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 153.0
36
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 142
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
58%
RAYS
42%
▲ Edge: +10.40% (HOU)
ASTROS
48%
Book Odds: +110
RAYS
57%
Book Odds: -133
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros
Loss
58% Win Prob
B
Sim
Astros
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
HOU @ TB
4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026
HOU @ TB
2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026
HOU @ TB
1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
TB @ HOU
0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
TB @ HOU
8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.728
4
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+29.0% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.1
Hits (L5)
+10.6% more
Houston: 7.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+10.1% more
Houston: 12.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.1
Home Runs (Season)
+4125.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.2
4
TB Score
3.8
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.7
15.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
4.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 7.0
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 12.3
31.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.0
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143
→
+110 / -133
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
HOU
TB
HOU
ML
58%
95-68
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
91-72
55%
90-73
55%
90-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-10
45%
69-86-9
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